SAGE warned only mandatory hotel quarantine for all UK travellers would ‘come close’ to to stop new strains entering the country, it has emerged.
In a recommendation made on January 21, Government scientists said anything other than a ‘complete closure of borders’ or isolating every visitor in designated facilities would be took weak.
SAGE’s unusually frank verdict on variants – published today after being leaked earlier this week – was likely the driving factor behind the Government’s new hotel quarantine scheme and blanket travel ban on 33 ‘red list’ countries.
Officials are anxious not to let another Covid variant run rampant, after Britain struggled to get a grip on the Kent strain which sparked a devastating second wave that plunged England into its third lockdown at the start of January.
Strains which emerged in South Africa and Brazil have been causing international alarm because, like the Kent version, they are more infectious than the original Covid but they also appear to make vaccines less potent.
Under the new quarantine plans, UK arrivals will have to stay in hotels for 11 nights at a cost of up to £1,000 per person, with the arrangements lasting until at least March 31.
But the Government was today accused of being too slow by Labour after it emerged today that not a single hotel has signed up to the scheme, which was announced nearly three weeks ago.
SAGE said No10’s earlier tactic of only banning countries which confirmed cases of the concerning variants was useless because most nations don’t have the testing capabilities to pick up on them quickly.
The expert group also stressed that voluntary self-isolation, another earlier UK strategy, was not firm enough because it was too dependent on people sticking to the rules.
Crowds of arrivals pack into a queue at Heathrow Airport as thousands continue to come into the UK from abroad each day
Britain’s hotel quarantine scheme will finally begin on February 15 – nearly three weeks after it was first announced
The three Covid variants causing international alarm emerged in Britain, South Africa and Brazil
Officials are planning to accommodate 1,425 passengers a day from ‘red list’ countries when the hotel scheme finally gets up and running. Travel is already banned from the current roster of 33 hotspot countries, so primarily those affected will be Britons returning to the UK.
Minutes from SAGE’s meeting on January 21 said: ‘Measures to reduce importations are most important when domestic prevalence (either overall or of a particular variant of concern) is low and when importation could lead to R>1.
‘No intervention, other than a complete, pre-emptive closure of borders, or the mandatory quarantine of all visitors upon arrival in designated facilities, irrespective of testing history, can get close to fully prevent the importation of cases or new variants.
‘The emergence of new variants of concern around the world presents a rationale for attempting to reduce importation of even small numbers of infectious cases.
‘This rationale will strengthen if new variants emerge that are capable of immune escape.’
Criticising the Government’s earlier border control tactics, SAGE added said they were ‘highly dependent on the level of adherence to quarantine’.
‘Adherence is not binary, and different types of non-adherence will vary in terms of risk.
‘There are limited data on adherence, with much based on self-reporting, and options to improve this data should be considered.’
‘Measures such as monitored quarantine (e.g. at airport hotels) for international travellers could reduce risks associated with non-adherence.
‘Hotel quarantine would also reduce the risk of onwards transmission within households.’
On only banning countries that report official cases of variants of concern, the group added: ‘Reactive, geographically targeted travel bans cannot be relied upon to stop importation of new variants, due to the lag between the emergence and identification of variants of concern, as well as the potential for indirect travel via a third country.’
Health Secretary Matt Hancock is due to announce more details next week on how travellers returning from coronavirus hotspots will be put into the hotels.
The taxpayer will initially foot the bill – estimated at around £50million a month – before trying to claw the money back from the arrivals.
One source told MailOnline they were confident of recouping the funds, suggesting credit card details could be taken.
The hotels are expected to have ‘Government-approved’ security staff on every floor to ensure people do not leave rooms, and smokers will need to be escorted outside.
Three meals a day with fruit and water will be delivered to the door, with hot and cold options available.
Tea and coffee will be available in the room, but guests are expected to clean their bathrooms and change their own sheets.
Some hotels have suggested they will provide yoga mats to help people exercise and de-stress during their detention.
Labour pointed out the measures will come nearly two months after the South African Covid strain was discovered in the UK and was ‘too little too late’ – repeating calls for a blanket quarantine policy on all travellers, rather than just ‘red list’ countries.
It accused the Government of dithering on the rollout of the scheme, which was annnounced three weeks ago and is thought to be being held back by logistical hurdles.
A Government source said today: ‘It’s complicated and there are a lot of pieces to the puzzle. It’s not as simple as banishing people to a hotel room and saying see you later.’
Among the issues are said to be ensuring guests get meals delivered to their rooms. Major hoteliers are furious about being kept in the dark about the proposals.
A health department spokesman said: ‘Throughout the pandemic, the Government has put in place proportionate measures, informed by the advice of scientists, and that has led to some of the toughest border regimes in the world.
‘It is currently illegal to go on holiday and passengers travelling to the UK must provide proof of a negative test before they travel, and self-isolate on arrival.
‘With increased police presence at airports and more physical checks at addresses to make sure people are self-isolating, we are taking decisive action.
‘We are now working at pace to secure the facilities we need to roll out managed quarantine for British nationals returning home from the most high risk countries, and are rightly engaging with representatives from the hospitality, maritime and aviation industry, and learning from our friends around the world.
‘In the face of new variants, it is important that the Government continues to take the necessary steps to protect people and save lives.’