The cost of lost schooling to a generation of children is today put at a shocking £350billion.
The impact on pupils missing classes during the pandemic could last a lifetime, a hard-hitting report warns.
Children who have been denied six months of normal education could lose an average of £40,000 in income over their career, predicts the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
The think-tank calls for ministers to consider ‘big and radical’ measures to help youngsters catch up.
These could include extending the educational year, lengthening the school day, summer catch-ups and even ‘mass repetition of whole school years’.
The IFS says the overall cost to the economy could top £350billion in lost earnings.
Last summer Boris Johnson, pictured during a virtual meeting with pupils on Friday, announced plans for a £1billion catch-up fund in England. An additional £300million was unveiled on Wednesday, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies calling for ‘big and radical’ measures to help youngsters catch up.
Its dire warnings make campaigns such as Mail Force’s Computers for Kids even more crucial.
The charity was boosted yesterday by further generous donations from readers and firms including The Hut Group, which pledged £500,000, and Santander bank, which offered 250 laptops.
More than £5.6million has now been raised in just eight days.
In other developments yesterday:
- A record 610,000 Covid vaccinations were carried out in a single day, meaning nearly nine million have now had their first jab;
- Matt Hancock predicted Britain could look forward to a ‘happy and free summer’;
- Liz Truss said the UK might send jabs to the EU and developing countries before every British adult is vaccinated;
- Another 587 Covid deaths were reported, taking the total to 106,158;
- A further 21,088 cases were confirmed, down from 30,004 a week earlier.
The IFS says administrations across the UK have allocated around £1.5billion toward catch-up support for pupils.
But it argues this is ‘tiny’ compared with the scale of the problem and a ‘massive injection’ of resources is needed.
It estimates that by the February half-term, the total loss in face-to-face teaching time will amount to around half a normal school year.
The IFS believes ministers should consider extending the academic year and making school days longer to ensure children catch up on classroom time that has been lost due to Covid
This is before accounting for lower-than-normal attendance rates in the 2020 autumn term, especially in disadvantaged areas.
If most schools do not go back until after Easter, youngsters will have lost two thirds of a normal school year.
Even if three quarters of the long-term impact is mitigated, the cost to the economy would still be nearly £90billion, the IFS analysis suggests.
The long-run negative effects of lost learning could be ‘concentrated’ among those from less wealthy backgrounds, leading to a ‘widening of existing inequalities’.
And the public purse could take a massive hit too.
Potential lost future earnings of £350billion would mean more than £100billion less tax revenue.
The IFS paper says: ‘Without significant remedial action, lost learning will translate into reduced productivity, lower incomes, lower tax revenues, higher inequality and potentially expensive social ills.
‘The lack of urgency or national debate on how to address this problem is deeply worrying.
‘The necessary responses are likely to be complex, hard and expensive. But the risks of spending ‘too much’ time or resources on this issue are far smaller than the risks of spending too little.’
Last summer Boris Johnson announced plans for a £1billion catch-up fund in England, with an additional £300million unveiled on Wednesday.
The Government is being urged to send funding directly to schools and colleges to ensure every pupil can catch up
But the IFS says extra resources must be much higher and ‘heavily skewed towards more disadvantaged pupils’.
Geoff Barton of the Association of School and College Leaders said the Government needed to put in place much more funding – going directly to schools and colleges.’
James Turner of the Sutton Trust, a social mobility charity, said: ‘The IFS is absolutely right to call for substantially more education funding to address the major issues coming out of this crisis.
It is absolutely crucial that this is targeted toward disadvantaged pupils who have been the worst hit by the pandemic.’
A Downing Street spokesman said: ‘The Government will work with parents, teachers and schools to develop a long-term plan to make sure pupils have the chance to make up their learning.’