Boris Johnson last night moved to reassure Tory MPs he is still targeting a March 8 start for the easing of the lockdown – as Government scientists warned restrictions may have to continue for months.
Downing Street sources said there was ‘categorically no change’ to the Prime Minister’s ambition to start the reopening of schools on March 8.
It came despite scientists claiming this could trigger a spike in Covid cases – as well as saying restrictions could still be in place by the end of the year, while people might be wearing face masks ‘for ever’.
Boris Johnson is under pressure to confirm the date for the reopening of schools in the wake of Britain’s vaccine success
But No10 confirmed that the PM will publish a detailed road map setting out his plan for lifting the lockdown on February 22.
It is expected to begin with the reopening of at least some schools next month, with primaries likely to be prioritised.
Outdoor exercise rules could also be eased at this stage.
The plans will then lay out a timetable for the reopening, with shops likely to go first, followed by gyms and hairdressers and, finally, pubs, restaurants and tourism.
Earlier Government suggestions that the timetable for reopening could slip led to an angry warning from the Covid Recovery Group of Tory MPs against ‘backsliding’.
Chairman Mark Harper said it was the ‘settled will of most MPs’ that schools should reopen on March 8.
The Prime Minister had signalled that he wants England’s schools to reopen on March 8 as the first sign of a return to normality
Deputy chairman Steve Baker urged the PM to reject calls from scientists to set further hurdles for releasing crippling restrictions. Mr Baker said: ‘Having a full public debate is essential at this time but I fear senior scientists are failing to recognise their power to spread despair and despondency. Some seem to be floating untested hypotheses in the media. Doing so is not science.’
Ministers will meet next week to assess the latest data before deciding on the precise order and target dates for each sector.
But two leading Government advisers yesterday raised doubts about the prospects for a rapid exit from lockdown.
Epidemiologist John Edmunds, a member of the Sage committee, warned that reopening schools next month could send the so-called R-rate of the virus back above one, allowing cases to rise again.
He told ITV’s Peston show: ‘It looks as if it would be touch-and-go. So if we opened up schools I think that the reproduction number would get close to one and possibly exceed one.
Deputy chairman Steve Baker urged the PM to reject calls from scientists to set further hurdles for releasing crippling restrictions
‘If we opened them completely, if we opened the secondary schools and the primary schools at the same time, I suspect we could be lucky to keep the reproduction number below one.’
Professor Edmunds warned that curbs on daily life – which may include the Rule of Six – are likely to be in force until the end of this year. Lesser measures, such as face masks on public transport and indoors – could possibly be in place ‘forever’, he said.
Sir Jeremy Farrar, another member of Sage, said a massive fall in Covid cases was needed before the PM should even consider easing the lockdown.
He suggested restrictions should remain in place until total infections had fallen from an estimated 750,000 to below 10,000 – a process that could take months.
Sir Jeremy warned that virus transmission was ‘still incredibly high’, and said it ‘doesn’t make any sense’ to set out plans with arbitrary dates in March or April.
He told BBC Radio Four’s Today programme: ‘I appreciate that businesses have to plan and everything else, but the data has to drive us. In 2020 we lifted restrictions too quickly when the data would not really have allowed that and, frankly, as a result the transmission went back up in this country.’
The interventions from Government advisers speaking in a ‘personal capacity’ infuriated Tory MPs anxious to see the restrictions on liberty and livelihoods eased as the vaccine rollout continues.
Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith urged the PM to ‘rein in’ his scientific advisers, who he accused of putting ‘outrageous pressure’ on ministers. ‘The Government is being bullied by these advisers,’ he said.
‘They seem to want to run the country but they do not care about the economy. With the vaccine rollout we are more protected than we have ever been, but the scientists seem to want to keep us locked down forever.’
Former cabinet minister Damian Green added: ‘We are now coming to the point where the politicians have to remind the scientists they only represent one aspect of this.
‘I don’t think we can follow a zero Covid strategy in a global economy, which is what some people now seem to be suggesting.’
Downing Street said ministers ‘will look at the data in the round’ when it comes to decisions on easing restrictions.
The PM’s official spokesman said: ‘We want to see infection rates continue to fall across the UK, not least so that will ease the pressure on the NHS and ultimately lead to fewer people sadly dying.
‘We will look at the data in the round and we will use that to inform the road map.’