The coronavirus pandemic could kill off large long-haul planes as the industry continues to be crippled by the worldwide lockdown, key figures have said.
As countries closed their borders and resorts shut down for an indefinite period, airlines have grounded their planes and furloughed thousands of workers.
In early April, global traffic was 80 percent below the same period a year earlier, quashing recent forecasts that the number of airline passengers would double within 20 years with annual growth of three to four percent.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated Tuesday that passenger revenues would plunge by 55 per cent, or $314 billion, in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The coronavirus pandemic could kill off large long-haul planes as the industry continues to be crippled by the worldwide lockdown, key figures have said. Pictured: A Lufthansa A380 plane sitting on the tarmac in March (Stock photo)
Alexandre de Juniac, the IATA’s director general added: ‘We are not expecting to restart the same industry that we closed a few weeks ago.’
It is believed COVID-19 has hastened the demise of the world’s largest passenger aircraft: the relatively new Airbus A380 and the Boeing 747-400, the original jumbo jet.
German carrier Lufthansa recently announced it would be permanently scrapping half its modern A380s, and retiring a similar number of its 747s early.
A statement by the group said it believes ‘it will take several months until the global travel restrictions are completely lifted and years until the worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels’.
But Andrew Charlton, an aviation consultant, believes the cuts by one of the world’s largest airlines to long-haul craft is only the beginning of a major shift.
British airline easyJet has said it expects to leave middle seats on planes empty as a short-term measure to enforce social distancing and gives customers more confidence (stock photo)
‘You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side,’ he told the Guardian.
Both types of models were among the first to be grounded this year as demand fell, with business class seats left empty as companies turned to video-conferencing tools to cut expenses.
Many are predicting short-haul carriers will look to lead the industry out of the crisis by offering rock-bottom prices to start generating revenues and possibly force down competitors prices across the industry.
British airline easyJet has said it expects to leave middle seats on planes empty as a short-term measure to enforce social distancing and gives customers more confidence.
German carrier Lufthansa recently announced it would be permanently scrapping half its modern A380s, and retiring a similar number of its 747s early (stock photo)
‘We will clearly look to have the middle seat empty as we start,’ Chief Executive Johan Lundgren said. ‘I think that is actually what the customers would like to see.’
But travel restrictions are likely to ease slowly and easyJet will have to be flexible, the CEO added. ‘I don’t think this is going to be a case of let’s just open everything up.’
The head of Ryanair, Europe’s largest low-cost airline, has brushed off forecasts of a sluggish recovery, telling reporters he saw a swift traffic rebound fuelled by ‘massive price-dumping’ in a race to win back passengers.
Low cost airlines have been criticised for their ‘tin-eared response’ to the crisis by offering vouchers rather than refunds to customers on cancelled flights, in a desperate attempt to save cash.
Andrew Charlton said: ‘Yes, passengers will travel by banking their vouchers … But people being burnt by that now aren’t going to book ahead in future – it’s collapsing confidence in booking.’
Larger airlines have also announced measures to build confidence in customers fearful of infection from cramped cabin space, with Emirates trialling a rapid blood test, where the results are available in 10 minutes, on all passengers on one flight from Dubai to Tunisia this week.
In late March, the IATA, which represents 290 carriers, forecast that half of the world’s airlines would run out of cash within two to three months.
It urged governments to support airlines either by nationalising them or injecting fresh capital, waiving or delaying charges including taxes, or providing loan guarantees.
EasyJet said it could survive a nine-month shutdown thanks to its measures to contend with the coronavirus crisis and is planning for a slow recovery.
The company will start to shrink its fleet and the number of planes it operates will not reach pre-crisis levels until 2022, signalling that it does not expect a quick recovery for the industry.
‘We’ve been able to adapt ourselves to reduced demand for the next couple of years, then have the flexibility to increase as demand picks up again,’ said CEO Johan Lundgren.