Britain’s coronavirus plan could still mean 70,000 deaths, expert warn

Britain’s coronavirus response does not go far enough and could still mean 70,000 deaths, experts warned today. 

The analysis by scientists from University College London, the University of Cambridge and Health Data Research UK will heap pressure on Boris Johnson to enforce ‘social distancing’ rules.

Using NHS health records from 3.8m adults in England, the team estimated the number of victims of the epidemic – taking into account those who would have died anyway and the government’s existing measures.

They found between 35,000 and 70,000 are likely to lose their lives. 

The paper – reported in the Financial Times but not yet published in a peer-reviewed journal – warns ministers should ‘do more in the pursuit of suppressing the epidemic whether through enforced lockdowns or enforced social distancing rather than voluntary measures’.  

Dr Amitava Banerjee of UCL, the lead author, said: ‘The UK government is currently following a partial suppression policy of population-wide social distancing, combined with home isolation of cases, as well as school and university closures, but this is currently not [mandatory]. 

‘Our study indicates that the government should implement more stringent suppression at population level to avoid not just immediate deaths but also long-term excess deaths.’      

The government’s chief scientist, Patrick Vallance, suggested last week that a UK death toll of around 20,000 would be a ‘good outcome’, albeit still ‘horrible’.

The PM dramatically stepped up the government’s response last week after modelling showed that there could be hundreds of thousands of deaths. 

But demands are growing for Mr Johnson to bring forward a European-style lockdown after extraordinary images emerged this morning of still-packed Tube trains in London – regarded as the engine of the UK outbreak. 

After a weekend in which crowds flocked to parks and landmarks to take advantage of sunshine, Mr Johnson effectively put the nation on its final warning last night, saying there should be ‘no doubt’ he would take draconian action.   

Health Secretary Matt Hancock underlined this morning that a decision is expected ‘very soon’, hitting out at ‘selfish’ behaviour and saying ‘nothing is off the table’.

He pointed to measures in Italy and France – where all municipal spaces have been closed, forms have to be filled out to leave the house, and police are on patrol handing out fines.

But Mr Hancock was embroiled in a furious spat with Piers Morgan after accusing the ITV Good Morning Britain host of spreading ‘tittle tattle’ over infighting within the government. Morgan retorted: ‘How dare you!’

The backlash was mounting against Mr Johnson’s ‘relaxed’ style today, with warnings of a ‘full-scale mutiny’ among Cabinet if the lockdown is not extended, and Labour MPs claiming his ‘mixed messages will cost lives’. 

Downing Street today dodged questions about the prospect of a mutiny, and said it was looking at evidence to decide whether social distancing must be enforced. ‘If our analysis is that people haven’t stopped their interaction then we will take further measures,’ the PM’s spokesman said. 

Labour’s official position has shifted to insist it is time to introduce harsher ‘compliance measures’.  

Traffic monitoring has suggested the capital is still running at a third of its normal rate, far higher than other European capitals. 

Brutal restrictions appear to be looming as the UK death toll rose by 48 in just 24 hours to 281 people, with more than 5,600 confirmed cases. These who died in England were aged between 18 and 102, authorities said.