Brexit: Ireland tells the EU to help ‘break the logjam’ and insists an agreement is ‘97% done’

Ireland last night urged the EU to help ‘break the logjam’ in Brexit trade talks as he insisted that an agreement with the UK is ‘within reach’ – despite Boris Johnson claiming that a No Deal scenario is a ‘strong possibility’.

Speaking before a summit of EU leaders yesterday, Irish premier Micheal Martin insisted that there are no ‘winners or losers’ and said neither side should walk away when ’97 per cent of a deal had been agreed’. 

Ireland is the member state most at risk from Britain crashing out of the Single Market and Customs Union on January 1 and straight onto World Trade Organisation terms – euphemistically dubbed ‘Australia-style’ by No10.

The Dublin government has been playing a key role behind the scenes in attempting to get both sides to strike a compromise, as British and EU officials continue to toughen up their negotiating positions. 

It came after Mr Johnson and EU chief Ursula von de Leyen were unable to find a way through the impasse in Brussels on Wednesday, and instead ordered Michel Barnier and Lord Frost to re-engage, on the understanding that unless a resolution has emerged by Sunday the plug will be pulled.

Speaking in Brussels, Mr Martin said: ‘Dialogue is key and both teams have given themselves a deadline of this Sunday, and I think the key to unlocking this is to stand back and look at the overall picture here. There can be no winners or losers in these negotiations from now on. There has to be a common purpose in terms of getting a deal over the line because it makes sense to get a trading deal.

‘It makes sense to get a trade deal. I’m very aware of the difficulties around a level playing field, the dispute resolution mechanism and fisheries.’

Mr Martin said he did not expect a breakthrough in the meeting between European Commission president Ms von der Leyen and Mr Johnson on Wednesday. ‘I think the fact that they met for quite a lengthy period of time and that frank exchange of views in itself is a good thing, and the fact that the negotiators are mandated to go back in again and try to break the logjam,’ he added.

‘Dialogue is key and both teams have given themselves a deadline of this Sunday. I think the key to unlocking this is to stand back and look at the overall picture here. Ninety-seven per cent of this is agreed. Are we saying we are going to lose out on a deal because of three per cent? Notwithstanding the significance of the issues. 

‘The bottom line is a lot of work has been done, a lot of agreement has been reached, so one final effort is required. There will, obviously, be the need for a compromise at the end of the day.’ 

Speaking before a summit of EU leaders yesterday, Irish premier Micheal Martin insisted that there are no ‘winners or losers’ as the Sunday deadline agreed by the PM and EU chief Ursula von de Leyen in Brussels this week looms

Ursula von der Leyen welcomes Boris Johnson prior to a meeting at EU headquarters in Brussels this week

Ursula von der Leyen welcomes Boris Johnson prior to a meeting at EU headquarters in Brussels this week

Boris Johnson warned last night there is now a 'strong possibility' of a no trade deal split from the EU on December 31

Boris Johnson warned last night there is now a ‘strong possibility’ of a no trade deal split from the EU on December 31

What are the sticking points in Brexit talks? 

FISHING

The UK has insisted that it will take back control of its coastal waters from the end of the transition period.

But the EU was demanding its fleets maintain previous levels of access – with Emmanuel Macron under particular pressure from the French fishing industry.   

Initially the UK said it wanted to reclaim 80 per cent of the EU quotas from January 1.

However, Brussels suggested that only 18 per cent should be restored.

The two sides are thought to be close to a ‘landing zone’ that includes a transition period, perhaps of five or seven years. However, there is no settlement yet.

LEVEL PLAYING FIELD 

The EU has insisted the UK commits to ‘level playing field’ provisions, guaranteeing that it will not undercut businesses with lower environmental standards and regulation.

State aid has emerged as a particular issue, especially as coronavirus puts swathes of the economy unviable. 

But the UK says it must regain sovereign powers to decide on rules, even though it has no plans to lower standards or warp competition by subsidising the private sector. 

It appeared this area was close to resolution last week, before France reportedly laid down a series of extra conditions including huge punishments for breaking the rules.

Although the UK is happy with ‘non-regression’ – meaning current standards are accepted as a baseline – it has dismissed demands to obey rules made by the bloc in future. 

GOVERNANCE

The enforcement of any deal, and who decides whether rules are broken, has been one of the flashpoints from the start.

Breaking free of the European Court of Justice was among the biggest demands of Brexiteers from the referendum. 

But the EU has been pushing to keep control of the governance, as well as insisting on tough fines and punitive tariffs for breaches.

The situation has been inflamed by the row over the UK’s Internal Market Bill, which gives ministers the power to override the previous Brexit divorce terms to prevent blockages between Britain and Northern Ireland.

Critics say that demonstrated why the enforcement mechanisms must be potent – which is why ministers had considered it important the issue was resolved. 

The EU has set out its no-deal contingency plans if a trade deal is not in place when the current arrangements expire at the end of the month, with what Tories complained was an offer to smooth disruption to freight and air travel in return for ongoing access to UK waters.  

The regulations would mean air safety measures would continue to be recognised, to avoid grounding planes, and carriers would still be able to fly over both  territories.

Basic connections by road freight and for road passengers would also continue for six months as long as they are reciprocal. Separate regulations, if approved by EU member states, would keep the Channel Tunnel road and rail links open for two months, until Britain and France agree new safety and supervision certificates.

But in an apparent trade off the commission said it was proposing ‘to create the appropriate legal framework’ for ‘continued reciprocal access by EU and UK vessels to each other’s waters after 31 December 2020’ – or until a ‘fisheries agreement with the UK has been concluded’.

As it stands, legally EU fleets have no access to the UK’s sovereign waters after December 31. The idea was swiftly dismissed by Downing Street, although there were reports the commission has suggested it can be treated separately to the other proposals.     

Last night the PM warned there is now a ‘strong possibility’ of the UK and the EU parting ways on December 31 without a trade deal in place. 

Mr Johnson said yesterday that he is stepping up British preparations for a chaotic split from Brussels at the end of the ‘standstill’ post-Brexit transition period. 

He said the ‘deal on the table is really not at the moment right for the UK’ and ‘we’re really not there yet at all’ on the crunch issue of fishing rights.  

However, the premier vowed to ‘keep going’ and to ‘go the extra mile’ to try to break the negotiating deadlock as he raised the prospect of a whistle stop tour of EU capitals in the coming days to get a deal over the line. 

Mr Johnson said he is willing to ‘go to Brussels, I will go to Paris, I will go to Berlin, I will go to wherever to try and get this home and get a deal’. But with time running out before the end of the transition period, Mr Johnson said now is the time to ramp up no deal preparations.

‘We’re not stopping talks, we’ll continue to negotiate but looking at where we are I do think it’s vital that everyone now gets ready for that Australian option,’ he said. 

The Government has long-described a no deal departure as the UK having an ‘Australia-style’ relationship with the EU because the country has no trade agreement with the bloc. 

Mr Johnson said that sticking points include ‘equivalence’, which he said would keep the UK ‘locked’ in the bloc’s regulatory orbit, and fisheries, which he said the current proposals mean ‘we wouldn’t still have control of our waters’.

The Office for Budget Responsibility financial watchdog has suggested that a no-deal outcome could wipe two per cent off GDP next year, which experts have indicated could be around £45billion.

As stock markets in Europe closed the pound was down 1.18 per cent against the euro and down 0.84 per cent against the dollar, with traders nervous as time for a deal to be agreed slipped away.

Mr Johnson’s intervention came after France trolled the UK that it is ‘ready’ for no deal and Brexiteers accused Ursula von der Leyen of ‘blackmail’ after she pushed the button on the EU’s contingency plans and urged increasingly panicky member states not to do ‘side deals’ with Mr Johnson.

With both sides pushing the trade negotiations to the brink, Emmanuel Macron pointedly dispatched senior ministers to view new arrangements at the Eurostar terminal in Paris. The French Europe minister Clement Beaune said ‘our preparations are in place’. 

Tensions have escalated again as the European Commission President warned the situation was ‘difficult’ after her three-hour dinner with Mr Johnson in Brussels last night failed to break the impasse.

The deadlock on Brexit is continuing today despite the last-ditch diplomacy from Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen

The deadlock on Brexit is continuing today despite the last-ditch diplomacy from Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen

Arriving for a European Council summit yesterday, Ms von der Leyen insisted leaders will discuss the Brexit situation later, after a ‘final’ deadline of Sunday was set to come up with a way of settling crunch disputes over level playing field provisions, fishing rights and enforcement.   

Tory MP David Jones, one of the heads of the influential Eurosceptic ERG group, told MailOnline: ‘The EU’s proposals confirm that they have still not come to terms with the fact that we are no longer a member state. 

‘They are proposing arrangements that benefit them more than they do us, but are still demanding that we adhere to their level playing field.

‘They are demanding our fish while offering nothing of substance in return. This is outrageous conduct – almost blackmail – and our government should have nothing to do with it.’

The plans emerged as Dominic Raab accused the EU of failing to respect ‘democracy’ by demanding unacceptable concessions on UK sovereignty. He would not categorically rule out any more talks after Sunday, but said it was ‘unlikely’.    

WHAT WILL THE UK-EU RELATIONSHIP BE LIKE IF IT FOLLOWS THE AUSTRALIA MODEL? 

Boris Johnson has said the UK could end up having a relationship with the EU after Brexit that is much more like the one Australia has with the bloc than Canada does.

Here is a look at what an Australia-style arrangement with the EU could be like.

What does the Prime Minister mean by an ‘Australian relationship’?

The Down Under relationship talked up by the Prime Minister is Downing Street language for a no-deal outcome with the UK’s largest trading partner.

Australia does not have a free trade agreement with the Brussels bloc, so the bulk of its trade is carried out on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

What would the likely economic impact be?

If the UK followed suit at the end of the transition period on January 1, following WTO rules would mean tariffs being placed on many goods traded between the UK and the EU, with the addition of some quota restrictions and customs checks.

It should be noted also that the UK and the EU trade far more with each other than Europe and Australia do and cross-Channel trade is a more varied range of mainly complex manufactured goods, compared with Australia’s exports which are focused on raw materials.

The UK, for example, trades more than half of its goods into Europe, compared with just 11% for the southern hemisphere country.

Could mini sector deals still be on the cards under Australian-like relations?

While Australia does not have a free trade agreement in place with Brussels, it does have a series of agreements on trade and other areas.

Mr Johnson’s previous comments about being willing to discuss the ‘practicalities’ on how aviation, road haulage and nuclear co-operation would work after the year is over seemed to suggest he too would be open to a series of mini-agreements to soften the no-deal landing.

For instance, Australia has agreements with the EU on the peaceful use of nuclear energy and scientific co-operation.

The pair also have a ‘mutual recognition agreement’ so there is acceptance of each other’s safety certificates and product markings.

The capital Canberra, meanwhile, negotiated an agreement on the trade of wine, a huge Australian export, in 2008.

Other arrangements are also in place to help combat crime and terrorism and to allow the exchange of classified information.

Is Australia happy with not having a free trade deal with the EU?

Critics of Mr Johnson have highlighted that while his administration has been espousing the virtues of trading with Brussels on similar terms to Australia, the Commonwealth nation is in the process of attempting to negotiate better arrangements with the EU.

Carl Bildt, co-chairman of the European Council on Foreign Relations, previously tweeted: ‘Prime Minister Boris Johnson talks about an Australia situation which he means no-deal with the EU.

‘He probably thinks it sounds better like that. Someone should tell him that Australia is actually busy negotiating a trade deal with the EU.’

Australia has been striving for a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU since July 2018.

What is a Canada-style agreement?

The 2016 agreement with Canada was described by the EU as the most ambitious it had signed with a third country.

It abolished tariffs on the majority of goods traded between the two sides, although some food products such as chicken and eggs are not covered.

Services are only partially covered and it does not include the financial services sector, which is crucial to the UK economy.

Border controls remain, but the agreement encourages the use of advanced electronic checking to speed customs clearances.

Because it is not a single market or a customs union, both sides are free to negotiate deals with other countries.

Boris Johnson had said he wanted Britain to have a Canada-style free trade agreement, but if that could not be agreed the UK would establish a trading relationship with the EU more like that which Australia has.