Leaked memo by Tory advisers reveals fears over Scots independence drive

Tory fears over Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish independence surge were laid bare today in a leaked memo.

An assessment put together by key advisers warns Boris Johnson that he cannot simply keep saying no to the SNP leader’s demands for another referendum.

The document from Hanbury strategy bemoans the ‘vacuum of leadership’ within the unionist movement – and suggests that the PM will need to offer Ms Sturgeon more powers to stave off a catastrophic break-up of the UK.

The memo, seen by Bloomberg, emerged amid rising alarm over the spike in support for independence north of the border.

An Ipsos MORI poll last week found 58 per cent of Scots backed the move once don’t knows were excluded. Ms Sturgeon’s handling of the coronavirus crisis and Brexit tensions have been credited with the shift.  

Downing Street insisted today that the independence question had been ‘settled’ by the unionist win in 2014. 

Hanbury is run by former government special advisers Ameet Gill and Paul Stephenson. Mr Stephenson worked on the Vote Leave campaign, and was part of the triumphant Conservative election machine last December. 

The firm has been awarded a number of government contracts, although the memo is not thought to have been commissioned by ministers. 

The document reportedly warns that arguments against re-running the ‘once in a generation’ 2014 referendum has been holed below the water line.

Ms Sturgeon has insisted that an SNP majority at Holyrood elections in May would give her a mandate   

‘Put simply, there are not enough Leave voters to convert to the ‘No’ side to make up for the movement of Remain voters into the ‘Yes’ camp,’ the memo said. 

It also highlights the lack of big figures who could lead a No campaign, saying there is a ‘a vacuum of leadership within the Unionist movement which is leaving the campaign rudderless at a key moment’. 

Is suggests that rather than rejecting a referendum outright, the government could take a three-pronged approach: ‘​New accommodation, new constitutional settlement, and cooperation rather than confrontation​.’ 

Handing more control over issues such as immigration to Scotland could be a ‘velvet no’ to stop a referendum in the short term. 

But alongside the ‘Four Nations, One Country’, the memo also floated the idea of asking the EU to make clear an independent Scotland would not be guaranteed membership. 

It suggested ‘co-opting the EU into demonstrating that there is no viable pathway to renewed membership’.

Ms Sturgeon was accused of ‘shamelessly’ exploiting the coronavirus crisis to ‘flog’ Scottish independence last week after she wrote an article for a German newspaper slamming Brexit.

In a piece for Germany’s Die Welt, the First Minister branded the UK’s tough line in trade talks ‘reckless’ and said she wanted Scotland to join the bloc if her campaign to split the union succeeds.

But critics lambasted the way Ms Sturgeon was trying to ‘stir up division’ at a time of crisis, even though she previously promised to put her separatist ambitions on hold.

In the piece, which coincided with the latest EU Council summit, Miss Sturgeon wrote that Brexit is a ‘direct threat to jobs, investment and living standards’ in Scotland and said the lack of a trade deal will ‘cripple’ the food and drink industry.

She said: ‘The fact the UK Government seems determined to push ahead with exiting the transition period with no deal in place would be a foolish move in normal times.

‘In the middle of a global pandemic it is utterly reckless.